Future Avoided Cost Explorer: Hazards

Problem

Since 2002, Colorado has experienced record floods, droughts, and wildfires that have impacted thousands of households and businesses and inflicted billions of dollars in impact to infrastructure, property, and the economy. While Colorado has made great strides in responding to, recovering from, and mitigating the impacts of hazards (perils), the state’s risk profile will continue to increase in the coming decades due to the convergence of growth and changing climate conditions. The state needed a new approach to thoroughly quantify its existing and future risk to climate hazards (such as flood, drought, and wildfire) or the potential savings from strategic resilience actions identified through existing planning efforts.

Solution

The State of Colorado contracted Lynker to quantify the economic impacts of climate change on select sectors of Colorado’s economy from flood, drought, and wildfire hazards. Risk was expressed in terms of dollar value impacts to select sectors of the Colorado economy, including building structures, public infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism. By calculating the economic impact for both current and future conditions, we can begin to understand what Colorado can gain by acting now to reduce its vulnerability and thereby reduce future damages. We developed models of each sector’s vulnerability to flood, drought, or wildfire using future climate and population conditions to estimate how those expected damages might change by the year 2050. We also developed a resilience dashboard where users can explore actions that promote resilience alongside the relative cost and level of effort. The results, methods, case studies, and project overview is accessible from the Colorado Water Conservation Board website at https://cwcb.colorado.gov/FACE.

Actionable Intelligence

Understanding the financial implications of climate change empowers Colorado communities to justify mitigation and adaptation investment decisions. This climate-informed risk assessment is unique in that future hazard damages are quantified using dollar value units for the entire state of Colorado.

Relevant Capabilities

Climate Change and Population Growth

With decades of deep experience in natural hazards analyses and risk assessment, Lynker Intel partners with private and public organizations to operationalize climate change impact analytics, projections of population growth and subsequent increases in vulnerable assets, as well as other changes influencing hazard and risk exposure, in order to make better business and adaptation decisions for the future impacts of hazards. Decisions that must be made now.

Geospatial Analytics

Business and government leaders face unprecedented risk from natural hazards, climate change, population growth, geopolitical shifts, and security threats. Lynker Intel can help you by building customized spatial intelligence to visualize risk on “smart” maps, find patterns and trends in big data, and communicate seamlessly during risk mitigation and response.

Natural Hazards and Risk Assessment

Lynker Intel is a global provider of risk and safety solutions related to natural hazards, with a broad range of services across. Our scientists, engineers, and economists have decades of experience performing risk and damage assessments for the insurance market and planning communities at town, city, and national scales.